Opaque Lucidity

And Now What?

It looks as if North Korea may be preparing to conduct another nuclear weapon test. We now know that the last one was, indeed, nuclear and not a conventional impostor. What now?

There are two reasons to conduct a nuclear test: to test the reliability of your stockpile, or show the world what your new little toy will do. Since North Korea has no large inventory of these weapons (at least, let's hope not), then the intention is to show that world that Kim Jong Il and his posse have joined the nuclear club. What now?

I ask the "what now?" question in all seriousness. I think we can all agree that whatever action the UN takes will mean little in real terms, and don't think that China is going to remain tough on the issue (although they are strengthening their border defenses). If we are going to act decisively, the we will probably have to do it alone.

Which is exactly what Kim Jong Il wants. He wants to negotiate with us alone, probably remembering the success he had with Madeleine Albright in the 1990's (the images of her drinking a toast with Kim as if he's some sort of legitimate state leader and not a mass-murdering silly inbred sociopath still turns my stomach). The six-party talks aren't popular in Pyongyang, probably because they don't allow the North to play one nation against another. So for any non-military option to work, we MUST keep the five parties (US, China, South Korea, Russia, Japan) together and in unison.

The big elephant in the mix is China. She is North Korea's largest trading partner, so she has the most economic pull. One way to approach the problem might be to offer to help pay for the cost of the refugees that are sneaking across the border daily on the condition that Beijing stop sending them back to certain imprisonment or death. I don't see that happening, but we need to start thinking outside of the box.

As I've said before, foreign policy is not a card game---every country has its own rules. A military intervention in North Korea is a non-starter for several reasons. First, we are stretched too thin to put boots on the ground (although the Navy and Air Force are not). Second, it is doubtful South Korea would support such a move because of the threat to Seoul, which is within artillery range of the DMZ. Third, if Japan supported the move, it would bring back all the bad memories of Japanese aggression in China and Korea during the Second World War. Old wounds heal slowly in that part of the world, or so I'm told.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the cost in lives would be enormous. I'm not talking about Iraq-like casualties or even Vietnam-like numbers; I'm talking about Okinawa and Iwo Jima. There are some hardcore dudes in the North Korean Army and hungry or not, many will fight to the last man. I don't think the American public could be convinced that such a sacrifice is worthwhile. I don't know that I could be convinced.