Opaque Lucidity

Tech Predictions

Thanks to the folks who produce the 'Buzz Out Loud' podcast, I have been thinking about 2008 and the IT-related tech we are likely to see during the year. Some of my predictions are gleaned from others; some are my own.

1. Flash memory will begin to replace magnetic storage in almost ever portable device in a big way. This is already happening with mp3 players, but I believe most notebook computers (>50%) will have flash memory in place of a hard drive by the end of the year. The trend will eventually move to the desktop/server market, but not until prices fall dramatically.

2. Google will begin offering wireless service (and possibly fiber service to homes and businesses) during 2008. They have bought a large amount of 'dark' fiber across the country and one has to wonder what they are going to do with it.

3. More internet service providers will begin doing more deep packet analysis, leading to more restricted access. This is already happening locally with my service provider (slow or no BitTorrent), but it will become pervasive. Access will also become 'tiered' meaning that the unlimited access most of us have now will become a thing of the past unless we pay for an expensive package of services.

4. There will be a concerted effort at the federal level to filter internet content at the ISP level. Instead of making an issue of parental responsibility, both Democrats and Republicans will jump on the bandwagon of the federal government as nanny with regard to controlling what your kids see on the web. Content filtering may not become a reality (what will the ACLU do on a really important privacy issue?), but the issue will grab serious headlines.

There you go. Talk to me in 364 days.