Opaque Lucidity

The First Impression

President Obama has been given his first real foreign policy "situation"----North Korea is promising retaliation against anyone who moves to intercept an upcoming satellite launch. South Korean, Japanese and US intelligence chiefs believe the launch may actually be a test of an ICBM and dummy warhead that could hit targets thousands of miles away.

I said long ago that foreign policy is not a card game. In other words, the rules change from nation to nation and region to region. The regime in Pyongyang has two goals: stay in power and scare South Korea and the US enough to keep them from invading. They have succeeded in their first goal and in the second, but not for the reasons they must believe. These two worldly goals could be used against North Korea IF President Obama has the stomach for it.

First, announce publicly that unless Pyongyang proves without a doubt that their satellite launch is only that and not a military test, the missile will be destroyed in flight. Also announce the arrival of a surface action group in the Sea of Japan ready to down the missile during its launch phase.

Second, actually shoot the missile down if North Korea does not meet the demand listed above. Kim Jong Il yearns to be taken seriously around the world; there is nothing more embarrassing than having the fruit of your military labor knocked out of the sky as if it's a toy.

These actions may seem extreme, but they would show Kim that even though administrations in Washington have changed, our attitude towards him has not.